SIX MONTH RISK OUTLOOK While June is generally too early to make reliable climate forecasts of the 2016/17 season, there is a high chance (above 70 per cent) that a La Niña event will occur by late 2016. For Southern Africa, La Niña is generally associated with above average December to March rainfall particularly in the southern half of the SADC region (although variability occurs). A La Niña may help reduce water deficits accumulated over the past two seasons, as well as potentially facilitate recovery of the agricultural sector from the huge production deficits expected this season. The agricultural sector therefore needs to be well prepared with appropriate inputs to maximize the opportunity presented by potentially good rains. However, the prediction of La Niña also implies an increased risk of floods which contingency plans must take into account. Average Dec-Mar rainfall for 9 La Niña events between 1981 and 2015, expressed as percent of 35-year average rainfall Percentage >300 201-300 151-200 126-150 111-125 90-110 75-89 50-74 <50 Source: FEWS NET, USGS. Water Conditions in most of the regions can only be expected to worsen throughout the dry season, which runs from May to October. Water supply will continue to decrease in both urban and rural areas, with serious implications for many sectors. 8 This includes an increased risk of water-borne (often transboundary) disease outbreaks such as cholera and parasitic infections due to communities being forced to use unprotected water sources, exacerbated in most cases by poor water and sanitation infrastructure. Pasture depletion is expected to worsen, with increased risk of livestock deaths. While the late (March 2016) rains did improve some pasture in the immediate term, it produced insufficient bulk and will soon be depleted, leaving livestock vulnerable again. Rural households in particular will not produce enough food to feed themselves, thus requiring assistance up until the next harvest in April 2017. At the same time food prices will continue rising, impacting access and accelerating inflation. Thus, while food may be available on the market, its price will be simply unaffordable to most. This will force more people to reduce the diversity, quantity and quality of the food they consume. Food insecurity at household level, exposure to diseases and poor childcare practices will lead to increased rates of malnutrition impacting the most vulnerable, including children and pregnant and lactating mothers. Rural-to-urban and cross-border migration is likely to increase as people move in search of alternative livelihoods. As rural agricultural systems fail, people (including smallholder farmers) will move from rural areas to seek employment in urban centres, which are already stretched beyond coping capacity. These migrants will likely end up in peri-urban informal settlements, with little to no infrastructure, worsening already dire conditions with significant implications for health and disease outbreak risks and little access to basic services including education. Some will choose to cross borders, which could fuel social tensions as competition for scarce resources increase in the destination countries. . In cases where there is information on rural food assistance programmes, some people may move from urban centres in the hope of accessing such programmes, but this movement is likely to be temporary. School drop-out rates are likely to increase as