SECTORAL IMPLICATIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODS The poor rainfall, in combination with above-average temperatures, has limited crop development and pasture regrowth. For the 13 Member States that provided data (which excludes Mauritius and Seychelles), cereal harvest decreased by 5 per cent from 40 million tonnes in 2015 to 38.2 million tonnes in 2016, representing an 11 per cent decrease against the 5-year average. Compared to the 2015 harvest, all countries except Madagascar, Namibia, Tanzania and Zambia recorded decreases in cereal production. Based on the 10 countries who submitted their food balance sheets (Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe), the region recorded an overall cereal deficit of 9.3 million tonnes for 2016/17 marketing year. All the above countries except Zambia recorded cereal deficits. Regarding the staple food maize, the region recorded an overall deficit of 5.1 million tonnes, which represents a 10 per cent decrease in production compared to the previous year and a 15 per cent decrease compared to the 5-year average. The biggest decrease in maize production was reported in Lesotho (70 per cent) and Swaziland (59 per cent). This year, one of the region’s bread baskets, South Africa, also recorded a decrease in maize production and is already importing maize and other cereals to meet its shortfall. Of the ten countries for which data is available, only Zambia recorded a surplus (0.8 million tonnes). All the remaining cereals recorded deficits as follows: rice (0.7 million tonnes), wheat (2.9 million tonnes) and sorghum/millet (0.6 million tonnes). Slight increases in the production of roots and tubers were recorded as follows: Cassava (4.4 per cent), sweet potatoes (4.5 per cent) and potatoes (0.8 per cent). The following countries, Angola, DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe reported on roots and tubers. Livestock production, a critical component of livelihoods in the region, has also been affected, with more than 643,000 cattle deaths reported as a result of El Niño-induced drought which has spurred diseases, poor pasture and lack of water, with major longer-term negative consequences. At the household level, livestock provides food, income and is generally used as a ‘savings account’, while at national and regional level it contributes to food security, trade and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For many, livestock represents wealth and its loss a sudden fall into poverty and deprivation With a successive year of widespread harvest failure, many communities do not have seeds left for planting or cash to buy inputs, meaning agriculture support is required before the next planting season in order to increase the chances of a harvest next season (April 2017). Negative coping mechanisms as a result of the drought also include the selling of agricultural assets, which may have to be replaced or provided in certain areas. The widespread cattle deaths also have implication for the next planting season, as many subsistence farmers rely on their draught power in their agricultural activities. RECOMMENDATIONS Response actions should aim at ensuring that farmers are supported to stay on the land and to produce food for their households in the 2016/17 agricultural season. Immediate relief and recovery interventions should include • Assisting smallholder farming communities affected by drought through direct provision of seeds, other inputs and tools and through cash and voucher schemes in some countries; • Scaling up of good farming practices that have been proven effective in various countries; • Promote insurance schemes for managing climate risks; • Strengthen surveillance given the increased threats and incidents of trans-boundary pests and diseases. Disease and pests will need to be contained early and surveillance plays an important role; • Implement measures for improved storage and minimization of post-harvest losses; • Scaling up of climate smart agriculture, 11