Costed Action Plan for SADC Industrialization Strategy and Roadmap
If investment levels were to remain at those for the 14 years to 2014, while investment
efficiency as measured by the capital-output ratio remains unchanged, SADC will fall
well short of the Industrialization Strategy and Roadmap indicative goals. To approach
the Roadmap targets, the region must both invest more – a minimum of 33 percent of
GDP - and invest more efficiently to bring the amount of capital required to increase
GDP by one percent to around 4 percent of GDP. If those two targets could be met,
GDP growth would rise to around 8 percent annually, which with two percent annual
population growth would result in per capita incomes growing by some 6 percent a year.
While there are substantial country-to-country variations, the data in Table 7.1 which are
no more than indicative, suggest that for the region as a whole, about two-thirds of fixed
investment is undertaken by the private sector and one-third by the state. The bulk of
state-funded investment is in physical infrastructure and social overhead capital
(education, training, health, and housing). About one fifth of all investment – public and
private – is funded from FDI, primarily in productive projects.
In 2014, SADC GDP was estimated at $706 billion, which means that if fixed investment
had reached 33 percent of GDP it would have totalled 233 billion (Table 7.2). In that
year gross domestic savings in SADC reached $150 billion while net FDI contributed a
further $3.3 billion leaving a funding gap of some $80 billion or 11.3 percent of GDP.
Table 7.2: SADC: Financing Gap (2014)
SADC
(o/w) South Africa (o/w) Angola
(o/w) Other 13
GDP ($ billions)
706
350
148
208
Investment $ billions
167
73.4
35.8
57.8
% of GDP
23.6
20.9
24.2
27.8
Gross Domestic
150.0
65
59
26
Savings
% of GDP
21.2
18.6
40.0
12.5
Net FDI
3.3
-1.4
-8.6
13.3
% of GDP
0.48
-0.4
-5.8
6.4
Target: Investment
233
116
49
69
(33% of GDP)
Financing Gap*
80
52.4
(3.2)
36.6
Of GDP
11.3
15.0
(2.2)
17.6
Current Account
43.0
19.1
3.7
20.2
Balance of Payments
Deficit
% of GDP
6.0
5.5
2.5
9.7
Sources: SADC: SADC Year Book (2014); World Bank: World Development
Indicators (2016)
* Financing gap = Target investment- (Gross Domestic Savings + Net FDI)
The net FDI figure for 2014 is seriously distorted by the outflow of $8.6 billion (outward
investment by Angola or disinvestment from that country). If Angola is excluded, the net
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