EXISTING VULNERABILITIES Southern Africa is projected to be one of the regions most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Increasing temperatures and declining rainfall patterns as well as increasing frequency, scale and scope of extreme climate events such as drought, floods and cyclones are the expected future weather patterns. Since 2007, three rainfall seasons have resulted in floods that disrupted the lives and livelihoods of more than 1 million people in the region, including the 2014/15 season, during which 1.8 million people were affected and 300,000 displaced. The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change. Close to 80 per cent of SADC’s agriculture is rain-fed; 70 per cent of its population depends on agriculture for food, income and employment; and the majority of farmers practice subsistence farming. Even in good years, rural households are usually able to produce little more than enough during the AprilJuly harvest to feed their families until the following harvest, with food stocks dwindling during the lean season (November-March). Southern Africa Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index DRC Tanzania Seychelles Angola Mozambique Zimbabwe Namibia Madagascar Mauritius Botswana Swaziland South Africa Lesotho Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI) 0.00 Source: FEWS NET, USGS. Although many countries have succeeded in reaching middle-income status due to their governments’ focus on macro-economic growth, poverty and vulnerability remain high, as can be seen by multidimensional poverty index (MPI) rankings. Angola, Mozambique, Madagascar and Tanzania have some of the highest MPI rankings in the region. Southern Africa has entrenched vulnerabilities such as structural inequality, high levels of chronic child malnutrition (stunting) and HIV prevalence. As of 2012 (latest available data), 20 per cent of SADC’s population was aged between 15 and 24 years, unlikely to be enrolled in secondary or higher education, and struggling to find stable employment, with the average rate of youth unemployment standing at 24 per cent (ILO, 2012). The population is projected to grow from 292 million in 2015 to 345.5 million by 2030 with an increasing share located in informal settlements, where access to improved 10 Malawi Zambia 0.90 Legend Admin 1 Countries Lakes sanitation and clean water is often minimal resulting in a higher risk of water borne disease. The region is also rapidly urbanizing, with 60 per cent of the population living in urban areas in 2014 (the highest in Africa), a figure projected to rise to 70 per cent by 2030, which presents huge sustainable development challenges both in terms of access to essential services and of land degradation. More than 60 humanitarian emergencies have so far been recorded in the region between 2000 and 2016 (EM-DAT). These successive shocks have exacerbated existing structural vulnerabilities, weakened coping capacities and rendered whole sections of society dependent on external assistance to break the recurring cycle of vulnerability and crisis. However, as many of these disasters are small compared to current global crises, they have often not received the recognition and assistance required to enable affected communities to recover and build back better.